10. An Introduction to Futures

This week we looked at futures as a method for exploring potential scenarios stemming from socio-technical advances and cultural shifts. The format of the course was primarily that of a lecture in history of futurism and methods for speculation as used by futurists, forecasters and consultants.

I was familiar with the majority of the themes presented in the class and found the course to be more of a summary of the status quo rather than a radical departure from conventional thinking. Therefore, this post is sort of a free form discussion based on ideas from some of my favorite authors that deal with futures in their work.

Future Shock

My first formal entry into the world of futurism and speculation about the futures was through a book Future Shock by Alvin Toffler. Toffler describes future shock as “the dizzying disorientation brought on by the premature arrival of the future” or more elaborately “as the distress, both physical and psychological, that arises from an overload of the human organism’s physical adaptive systems and its decision-making processes”.

While the title of the book has rather gloomy and somehow violent connotations, it presents a predominantly techno-optimist view predicting that majority of human aspects of life will improve by commonly accepted measure of what constitutes progress.

Despite the book being quite voluminous, I have devoured it in a few sittings. Toffler’s style of writing puts you in a dream-like state where you are vividly imagining scenarios he is presenting. Because Toffler wrote the book in 197?? some of the particularities did not materialise but overall his thoughts on how techno-scientific developments will impact the culture came to fruition. Particularly the theme of increasing individualisation, fragmentation and polarisation of society resonates in the context of today’s centralised social media infosphere.

“What is needed is a concentrated focus on the social and personal implications of the future, not merely on its technological characteristics.”

— Alvin Toffler, Future Shock (1971)

Besides being an enjoyable read, Future Shock illustrates a powerful format for engaging with futures that is accessible to academics and layperson alike. It grounds it’s predictions on solid scientific findings whilst being bold in going beyond them in the space of speculation and imagination. Today’s entertainment dominated by distopian visions of the future, Toffler’s style and ideas are relevant more than they were almost 50 years ago.